Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 7, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Law & Order (F), (P) 0.57
Mercy (P) 0.67
Trauma (P) 0.73
Law & Order (Monday), (P) 0.80
Parks & Recreation (P) 0.81
Community 0.87
Heroes (P) 0.91
Chuck 0.97
Law & Order: SVU (P) 0.98
30 Rock (P) 1.10
Parenthood (P) 1.24
The Office (P) 1.54

This post is not only dedicated to, but also mostly written by, our longtime commenter Holly:

NBC does NOT need to renew any of their low-rated shows just to fill space. Out of 19 hours (not including Saturday), they have 4 covered by football, 2 by Biggest Loser, 2 by the Thursday comedies, 2 by the L&Os (which are very likely renewals), and at least 1 by Dateline. That’s 11 hours, so that leaves NBC with only 8 hours to fill (less if Chuck and/or Parenthood does well enough for renewal).

ABC launched 7 hours of new programming this fall, so 6-8 doesn’t seem extreme for a network looking to “rebuild”.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. As woeful a situation as NBC is in, it doesn’t need to keep any ratings losers just to fill the schedule space. Fans should base their hopes on something else, like tea leaf readings.

News that Community, 30 Rock and The Office have all been renewed, only Chuck is reasonably left on NBC’s “bubble”.  Ratings indicate that Chuck is still leaning on the good side of renewal, but last night’s (preliminary) 2.3 rating didn’t help things.

Edit: Oops! Of course Parenthood is still on NBC’s bubble. I simply forgot to mention it. Impending Alzheimer’s I tell you!

Some would put Heroes on NBC’s bubble too. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.

As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving :mrgreen: or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC’s calculation  I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

blog comments powered by Disqus