Since the CW starts its new show premieres tomorrow, it’s time to look at the the battles that loom on the night for the 2009-10 fall broadcast season. Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average from the 2008-9 season.


Shark Tank (ABC), 1.7 adults 18-49 demo  rating for summer 2009 through 8/30.

NCIS (CBS),  3.4 demo rating

90210 (CW), 1.1 demo rating

So You Think You Can Dance (8-10p) (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30

Biggest Loser (8-10p) (NBC), 3.3 demo rating


Dancing With The Stars (ABC), 3.8 demo rating

After Dancing finishes: Scrubs (ABC) 1.9 demo, Better Off Ted (ABC), 1.8 rating

NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) New

Melrose Place (CW) New

So You Think You Can Dance (8-10p) (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30

Biggest Loser (8-10p) (NBC), 3.3 demo rating


The Forgotten (ABC), New

The Good Wife (CBS), New

The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating

My Guess

I think Tuesday’s night average nightly demo race is going to be very competitive. I like CBS to win if The Good Wife doesn’t completely implode. They’ll have a strong 8pm hour, if 9pm isn’t strong I’d be shocked and one unknown hour. At the beginning of the season it’s easy to see NBC in second place with the early Jay Leno Show tune in. After things settle down, I think NBC’s average could drift down near Fox’s 2 hours of So You Think You Can Dance.

With a weak hour to start the night, a new show at 10pm, and ratings weakness (Scrubs, Ted) at 9pm following Dancing With The Stars, I can’t see ABC finishing better than 4th for the night. Of course the CW’s going to be a distant fifth, but I’d guess that Melrose Place does better than Privileged did in the same slot initially, so the CW will see an uptick for the night to start the season.

Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.

Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox’s fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they’ll suffer.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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