I’m not really into looking five years into the future, I’d say that’s because I’ll be out of the 18-49 demo by then (though still in the 25-54 demo!) but I’ve never been a believer in very bold five year predictions. That’s one of the reasons I usually like the predictions coming out of MAGNA, and I like the latest in its On-Demand Quarterly report for April 2009, because they seem modest and conservative rather than outlandish.
Here are some highlights (emphasis in the first two bullets is mine):
- Our year-end 2014 forecast for DVR subscriber households is 51.1 million (43% of TV households), up from 29.8 million (27% of TV households) as of the end of 2008. We note that the aggregated impact of DVRs will likely continue to be outpaced by rising population and increases in consumption of conventional TV.
- Over the 10 years between 2004 and 2014, we can estimate that DVRs will contribute to a 4% erosion in total viewing impressions across all dayparts. However, rising DVR penetration will be more than offset by increases in TV consumption (which has been slightly less than1% per household in recent years) and increases in total households (which has been slightly more than 1%). These latter two figures would drive a 20% increase in total viewing impressions over this ten-year time-frame.
- Of course, while DVRs will continue to disproportionately impact younger target audiences and network prime time, the aging of our society and the gradually eroding importance of network prime time will likely render such targets incrementally less important in the years ahead.
- We estimate that 69.5 million households had broadband access as of the end of 2008, 59% of the country’s 118 million households. We expect that total broadband access will rise to cover 86.5 million households by the end of 2014.