It’s not a bad bet to say “The Resident” will get the biggest series premiere ratings of the season Sunday night.

(Update: Turns out it was kind of a bad bet.)

The drama will debut following the NFC Championship and postgame show on FOX (more on how that came to be here). Outside the Super Bowl, a series can’t ask for a larger lead-in than the primetime conference title game, which alternates between FOX and CBS each year.

What the show does after that, however, is an open question. Recent history suggests “The Resident” will fall considerably in its second episode (scheduled for Monday).

Here’s how each post-championship show has performed among adults 18-49 in this decade:

Year Post-championship show Start time (ET) 18-49 rating
Champ. game 18-49 rating
2011 Hawaii Five-0 10:13 p.m. 5.6 18.1
2012 American Idol 10:57 p.m. 7.9 20.5
2013 Hawaii Five-0 10:16 p.m. 3.5 16.8
2014 The Following* 10:19 p.m. 4.4 19.0
2015 Scorpion 10:30 p.m. 3.2 13.9
2016 The X-Files* 10:24 p.m. 6.1 15.7
2017 Hunted* 10:09 p.m. 4.1 15.4
Averages 10:24 p.m. 5.0 17.1

*Indicates a season or series premiere.

The shows following the conference championship games have averaged a 5.0 rating among adults 18-49 since 2011. Given the decline in both overall primetime and NFL ratings this season, “The Resident” may not clear that bar Sunday night. It’s not unreasonable, however, to expect it can top “Young Sheldon’s” 3.8 as the top series debut of 2017-18.

Wherever “The Resident” starts, its ratings will undoubtedly take a hit with Monday’s second episode. Since 2012, the next new episode after a show’s post-title game showcase dropped by an average of 42 percent. (CBS aired reruns of “Hawaii Five-0” in the two weeks after the 2011 AFC Championship.)

The real test of the show will come with episode 3 and beyond, of course. The fact that it’s getting the showcase spot on Sunday at least indicates that FOX has high hopes for it being able to succeed.

Posted by:Rick Porter

Rick Porter has been covering TV since the days when networks sent screeners on VHS, one of which was a teaser for the first season of "American Idol." He's left-handed, makes a very solid grilled cheese and has been editor of TV by the Numbers since October 2015. He lives in Austin.

  • TV Ratings Sunday: ‘The Resident’ gets decent numbers behind lower-rated NFC Championship – TV By The Numbers by

    […] 2.7 rating among adults 18-49, which will probably adjust up to the low 3s, will end up among the lower post-conference championship episodes this decade. The NFC title game itself was down about 12 percent in metered-market households (24.4 […]


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