As soon as new broadcast shows begin premiering for the 2014-15 broadcast TV season, so will the fan laments over their favorite show’s ratings and prospects.

“Oh no! It needs to get a 2.0 rating to survive!”

“That’s too much of a drop, it’ll never make it!”

“Look at how well Big Bang Theory did, my show’s a goner!”

Fortunately for fans of individual TV shows, their renewal and cancellation decisions are a lot like the old joke about two guys being chased by a bear.

You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other guy!

In the broadcast TV world, for scripted shows “the other guy” is the other scripted shows on the same network. And you don’t have to outrun them all, even being a little below average in the adults 18-49 ratings (~10-15%) for the show’s network still means pretty certain renewal.

For the purposes of individual show renewal or cancellation decisions, no matter what the network PR flacks would have you believe, ratings performance vs. shows on competing networks is irrelevant!

Fans wanting to see where their favorite broadcast scripted shows stack up on a relative basis vs. the other shows on their network should read the cancellation bear’s Renew / Cancel Index posts beginning next Tuesday, September 23 with posts for each of the broadcast networks. Our very own Cancel Bear will have new posts for each broadcast network every Tuesday during the broadcast season with updated renewal and cancellation projections.

You can always find the Cancel Bear’s latest Renew / Cancel Index predictions by clicking on the Renew / Cancel link in the white navigation bar above.

The best way to follow and interact with the Cancel Bear is on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancel Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and URLs as well as engage in a lot more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Note: Of course, it’s the absolute ratings that matter to each network’s bottom line. So when all the shows on a particular network have ratings drops, it’s not bad news for any one of the shows in particular, but it is bad news for the network.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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