Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.54|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.59|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.62|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.64|
|Cold Case (P)||0.66|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.85|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.89|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.04|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.10|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.11|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.12|
|Rules Of Engagement||1.17|
|Two And A Half Men||1.48|
|Big Bang Theory||1.57|
There was some discussion on the site about what defines a “bubble show“. Whatever your definition, it would be hard not to include CBS’s crowd of The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally On Purpose, and Medium. The ratings, and CBS’s past behavior, indicate that those 4 shows could go either way.
While the numbers for Numb3rs have placed it in danger of cancellation from the beginning of the season, all the press surrounding its season finale leads me to believe that CBS will be canceling the show.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried’s prospects. If it drops well below Gary’s average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it’s a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine’s prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Medium.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS’s case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.