Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 7, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.54|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.59|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.62|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.64|
|Cold Case (P)||0.65|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.84|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.89|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.04|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.10|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.11|
|Rules Of Engagement||1.13|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.13|
|Two And A Half Men||1.47|
|Big Bang Theory||1.55|
Again, CBS has the most shows on its “bubble”, and again there’s the most uncertainty about which will get the first bullet in the head, and which might escape one entirely.
If I had to pick today, this would be my firing squad order, beginning with the most likely to go. Towards the bottom of the list, the likelihood of escaping a bullet entirely grows significantly.
- Cold Case (certainly condemned)
- New Adventures Of Old Christine
- Accidentally on Purpose
- Gary Unmarried
- Medium (CBS may well be out of bullets by now)
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried’s prospects. If it drops well below Gary’s average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it’s a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine’s prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS’s case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.