Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 3, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) 0.49*
Melrose Place (P) 0.64
90210 (P) 0.90
Gossip Girl (P) 0.98
Smallville (F), (P) 0.99
One Tree Hill (P) 0.99
Supernatural (S), (P) 1.08
Vampire Diaries (P) 1.43

Since there have been few new episodes aired in the past two weeks, I thought it would be a good time to review CW’s mid-season scripted show situation this year compared to last year.

Mid-season 2008-9:

  • 2 shows canceled (Easy Money, Valentine)
  • 3 more shows ultimately canceled (Everybody Hates Chris, The Game, Privileged)

Mid-season 2009-10:

  • 1 show canceled (The Beautiful Life)
  • 1 show in significant danger (Melrose Place)

Fewer moving parts in the CW’s lineup means far simpler comparisons to last season. Just as Privileged was last season’s new fall ratings loser that hung on into the spring, this season it’s Melrose Place. Their fates will be the same.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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