Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 20, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL (P)||0.49*|
|Melrose Place (P)||0.64|
|Smallville (F), (P)||0.90|
|Supernatural (S), (P)||0.98|
|Gossip Girl (P)||0.99|
|One Tree Hill (P)||1.00|
|Vampire Diaries (P)||1.30|
Melrose Place ratings are so woeful, and its chances of being canceled at the end of the season so certain, that its last two new episodes (with 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings) failed to beat repeats of Supernatural, Smallville and (several) Vampire Diaries over the last 3 weeks.
Speaking of repeats, the CW’s practice of starting their season two weeks ahead of the rest of the official start of the broadcast season is coming home to roost. In the last four weeks they’ve aired a total of eight new episodes of scripted shows.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.