Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 28, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.20|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.23|
|Til Death (Sunday)||0.26|
|Human Target (Wed only)||0.63|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.68|
|American Dad (P)||0.75|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||0.83|
|The Simpsons (P)||0.95|
|Family Guy (P)||0.99|
I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
24 is certainly way down in the ratings from its past, and there have been lots of rumbling in our comments about whether it might be Jack Bauer’s last day on the job. I’m not close to buying that yet, even with last night’s preliminary 2.5 rating for adults 18-49. Until there’s several more weeks like that or worse, I’d expect the clock to start ticking again next season.
Human Target’s first 3 weeks in its “regular” Wednesday 8pm timeslot produced adults 18-49 ratings of 2.4, 2.5, and 2.1. Discounting the last one as being vs. an historic Winter Olympics night, its got to be considered to be one of Fox’s three “bubble” shows. Is it the weakest of the three? Note: the Index value above is for only Target’s Wednesday 8pm episodes.
All the schedule experiments have shown little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).
Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!
Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. ‘Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I’d be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.