Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 10, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.22|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.26|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.76|
|American Dad (P)||0.90|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||1.07|
|Family Guy (P)||1.22|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.23|
I’m still figuring out what I will do with the Fox Indexes to make them more comparable to the other networks going forward. The Fox ratings averages have been so skewed by sports (and starting next week will be by Idol) it makes them difficult to compare to the other networks. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
Several interesting developments in the past week in the Lie To Me vs. Fringe survival match:
- Fringe’s 2.8 rating last night is almost exactly the same as the ratings average for Lie To Me following a new episode of House.
- Fox announced it would begin airing X-Factor in fall, 2011. My guess is that means they will either keep SYTYCD or another 3-4 hour a week reality show in their fall lineup for 2010. As I wrote last week, that’s not good news for one or both of Fringe and Lie To Me.
All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between them. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.