Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*||canceled||0.50|
|Body Of Proof||😥 😥||0.59|
|Malibu Country (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.61|
|Zero Hour||😳 (canceled 3/1)||0.62|
|666 Park Avenue*||canceled||0.68|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.69|
|The Neighbors||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Revenge||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.92|
|Nashville||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.96|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Once Upon A Time||1.28|
3/1 Update: Zero Hour has been officially canceled. Only the timing was any surprise at all.
The cancellation bear considers the prediction of certain cancellation for Body Of Proof to be his biggest miss of last season*.
Why did it happen? Even in hindsight, the bear’s not certain. Was it the three episode ratings recovery at the end of the show’s Spring run? Was it the California production tax credit? Nobody who really knows is talking to the bear.
But once burned on a show, the bear’s twice shy. Otherwise, the 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week for Body of Proof would have it predicted as certain to be canceled.
Instead, for now, the bear will make it only likely to be canceled. Stay tuned as the bear keeps his eye on the salmon, er show.
*While the bear piled up 3 misses on CW shows last season, they were all toss-up shows that were noted close calls and the bear’s final guesses all went the wrong way. Robert leaned the other way on two of them and only missed one CW prediction.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.