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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.50|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳||0.60|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.66|
|Revenge||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.82|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Back in the Game||canceled, will air remaining episodes||0.92|
|The Goldbergs||😐 😐 😐||0.96|
|Super Fun Night||😳||1.14|
|Once Upon A Time||1.15|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.55|
Since it’s a third season show not produced by ABC, the cancellation bear is inclined (but not compelled, as if it were produced by ABC) to predict renewal for Last Man Standing from the start of the season, but a wanted to wait a few weeks for results. Its initial weeks against new broadcast competition weren’t encouraging, so the bear kept his prediction for the show at a “toss up”.
In the last 2 weeks the show has recovered to a relative ratings level that indicates renewal for a Friday show, particularly one with a production company motivated to go low on its license fee if necessary to grab that 4th season and get the show enough episodes produced for stripped syndication.
Also, while the cancellation bear still expects the syndication gods will save Revenge, he’s no longer certain they will, given its relative ratings tumble. The bear has adjusted the show’s prediction down to “likely to be renewed”.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.