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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*||canceled||0.50|
|Malibu Country (F)||😐😐😐||0.63|
|666 Park Avenue*||canceled||0.68|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐😐😐||0.70|
|Once Upon A Time||1.38|
Guessing at the ratings threshold for the renewal of Friday sitcoms Last Man Standing and Malibu Country is tricky because there is relatively little past data for scripted show renewals on Fridays, which clearly can come with lower ratings averages than for shows on other nights. I usually assume ~30% “handicap” for Friday ratings, and on that basis Last Man Standing’s 2013 average is looking reasonably good, and Malibu Country is somewhat shakier. The reason I still have both of them at “toss up” is because they’ve both somewhat inconsistent. I’m hoping as we go forward in the spring, it becomes a bit more obvious, either positive or negative.
Did last week’s 1.9 rating for Nashville make my move to “certain renewal” a week ago a bit shaky? Perhaps. Another below average week and the show will likely be back down to “likely renewal”.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.