Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 11, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||😥 😥||0.58|
|666 Park Avenue||😳 canceled 11/16||0.64|
|Happy Endings||😐 😐 😐||0.64|
|Last Resort||😳 canceled 11/16||0.68|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.72|
|Scandal||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|Malibu Country (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.80|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.82|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|The Neighbors||😐 😐 😐||0.86|
|Once Upon A Time||1.33|
11/16 Update: Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue were canceled.
Rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season, why are they still on the air (along with Partners, The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens)?
Robert noted that the difference in the number of shows that have been yanked off the air isn’t much different than last season. Why leave the losers on the air? The best guess is that economically it no longer makes sense for the networks to stock so many “extra” replacement shows, and any replacement options work out negatively for them even vs. airing a dead show. Sticking with the losers through 13 episodes is the economically less painful decision. That fans continue with hope for those failed shows isn’t surprising, but if they followed the cancellation bear, they might save themselves some surprises.
In ABC’s case, they have one veteran drama (Private Practice), and two failed rookies (Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue) that they didn’t have the bench to replace early (nor could any early replacements have been marketed effectively). Instead of taking the rookies off the schedule early, as they did with Charlie’s Angels, My Generation & The Whole Truth in recent years, they’re leaving them on the schedule until they burn through their 13 episode orders (and may even get an extra episode or two like Pan Am did)
Sophomore sitcom Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23 didn’t start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second episode. If it weren’t for hurricane Sandy, the 1.2 rating last week would have made it “certain to be canceled”. As it is, I’ll wait for one more week’s ratings before dropping it there.
Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it’s terrible ratings it’s going no lower than a “toss up”. May the syndication gods have mercy on the cancellation bear’s soul.
Last Man Standing and Malibu Country both had nice premiere ratings for a Friday, but were down sharply to a 1.6 and 1.7 rating in their second episodes. That’s still “likely renewed” for a Friday show, but further declines threaten those predictions.
Even with full season orders for this season, ABC’s mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.