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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😥 😥||0.48|
|Lucky 7||😳 (canceled 10/4)||0.56|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.59|
|Nashville||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Back in the Game||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Trophy Wife||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|Once Upon A Time||1.13|
|The Goldbergs||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.34|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.04|
The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!
Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted 10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there’s no question both of those shows are #bearchow.
Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn’t see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.
The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they’re both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.