Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 9, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Manhattan Love Story* canceled 0.48
Cristela (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.54
Selfie canceled 0.54
Last Man Standing (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.61
Revenge 😐 😐 😐 0.62
Forever 😳 0.65
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.70
Resurrection 😐 😐 😐 0.77
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.86
Castle  🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Grey’s Anatomy  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
black-ish :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
How To Get Away With Murder :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.75

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When a Fall premiere rookie show as low rated as Forever gets a full season order that signals one thing to the cancellation bear: the network has even less confidence in whatever it has on the bench for mid-season. ABC’s drama cupboard must be exceedingly bare, and regardless of how many episodes air this season, Forever ratings say “certain to be canceled in May”. A note to the crazy, or reading challenged, all the bear’s predictions are for the end of the season.

Previous weeks:

How is Nashville already certain to be renewed? Read this.

While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some ABC notes from Tom Shaw:

Selfie, after performing equally as dismally at 8:30, was given the axe. With Galavant confirmed for the Once Upon a Time gap, this means ABC has already decided on the fate of one of the two Fox-produced freshmen: either Fresh off the Boat is being given a doomed double episode run in January, or Cristela isn’t getting a backorder. We probably already know which, as…
Cristela, finally airing again in a “normal” (no World Series / Halloween) week, kept the same 1.0 rating. While that 1.0 isn’t disastrous (by Friday standards), it is low enough for ABC to probably schedule Fresh off the Boat there. (Boat may easily do worse than Cristela did in the timeslot; sometimes a network just has to find a spot for a show, current occupant be damned.) Whether we’ll see a cancellation notice in the near future is an interesting question; ABC may simply not mention anything until they put out their Spring schedule.
Forever, in likely related news, was given a backorder. While Forever‘s low 1 ratings are nothing to write home about, they are better than what Killer Women and Mind Games were producing last season. Still, I have a hard time seeing this get a second season, when Resurrection‘s notably better ratings couldn’t garner it even one extra episode this season.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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