Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 5, 2015):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Manhattan Love Story* canceled 0.48
Selfie* canceled 0.53
Revenge 😥 😥 0.55
Cristela (F) 😳 0.55
Forever 😳 0.57
Resurrection* 😳 0.59
Last Man Standing (F) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.74
Galavant* 😳 0.74
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.75
Agent Carter* 😐 😐 😐 0.78
American Crime 😥 😥 0.79
Secrets & Lies 😐 😐 😐 0.80
Castle  🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.84
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.85
Fresh Off The Boat 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.01
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
black-ish :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
Grey’s Anatomy  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
The Goldbergs :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
How To Get Away With Murder* renewed 1.59
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79

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Six weeks ago, the cancellation bear had Fresh Off The Boat predicted as “certain to be renewed”, but its ratings have plunged since then.

In its regular Tuesday time slot it went from from a 1.9 rating in week 22 (120% of ABC’s scripted average for that week) to a 1.3 in week 28 ( 78% of ABC’s average for the week). The bear will wait another week to see if that 1.3 was an aberration. If not, his prediction for the show will be moving down to a “toss up” next week.

If the show’s relative ratings fall much below its recent level, expect the bear’s prediction to fall to “likely to be canceled”.

Previous weeks:

How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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