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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.62|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.86|
|Last Man Standing (F)||0.89|
|Back in the Game*||canceled||0.90|
|Super Fun Night*||😳||0.94|
|Suburgatory||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.01|
|The Goldbergs||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.05|
|Mixology||😐 😐 😐||1.08|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.40|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳|
|Once Upon A Time|
The premiere ratings for Mind Games put it directly into the jaws of the cancellation bear. The show’s certain to be canceled. The show’s creator, Kyle Killen, is not only a favorite of TV critics, he’s become a favorite of the bear’s too. Three shows fed immediately to the bear (Lone Star, Awake, Mind Games) and counting!
While the premiere ratings for Mixology were above the 2014 average for ABC scripted shows, that average has lacked three of ABC’s four top rated dramas until last week (when two returned). Don’t be fooled by the show’s current >1.0 Index value, it’s likely to have been nearer 0.9 were ABC running a full schedule. That’s why it’s starting out as just a “toss up” to be canceled or renewed.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.