Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-November 30, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Manhattan Love Story*||canceled||0.48|
|Cristela (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.54|
|Revenge||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.63|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.84|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|Once Upon A Time||1.33|
|How To Get Away With Murder||1.52|
Resurrection’s ratings dive this season has been dramatic. It premiered to a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating, and dove to just a 0.8 rating on November 30. The cancellation bear’s predictions have followed its ratings down all the way, and now he has it as “certain to be canceled”.
Cristela received a “back 9” order to complete its rookie season. That hasn’t changed the bear’s “toss up” prediction for it, but its spring ratings will, one way or the other.
How is Nashville already certain to be renewed? Read this.
While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some ABC notes from Tom Shaw:Cristela was given a backorder. While that’s a minor surprise to me, the bigger takeaway is that leaves no good home for Fresh Off The Boat. And if ABC estimated it couldn’t beat out Cristela‘s 1.0s, you shouldn’t believe it has a chance.
–Revenge, on an admittedly bad night for ABC, dropped down to a mere 1.0. While you could argue that “maybe the show will improve with another lead-in!”, that’s not scheduled to happen until March, at which point those involved will have likely already decided on whether it is a season or series finale.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.