Click this link for the latest ABC c1enewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 11, 2015):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Manhattan Love Story* canceled 0.48
Revenge 😥 😥 0.52
Selfie* canceled 0.53
Resurrection 😳 0.55
Forever 😳 0.68
Cristela (F) 😥 😥 0.80
Last Man Standing (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.98
Galavant 😐 😐 😐 1.01
Agent Carter 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.17
black-ish :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
The Goldbergs :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.54
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Castle  🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Grey’s Anatomy  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
How To Get Away With Murder :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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The cancellation bear gives veteran shows some ratings slack since they can often survive at lower relative ratings levels than can first or second year shows, but the continuing decline in Revenge ratings has taken up all that slack, and more. The bear has moved his prediction for Revenge down to “likely canceled.”

Previous weeks:

How is Nashville certain to be renewed with its ratings? Read this.

Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:

Galavant premiered pretty well for Sundays, surprising many of us – ABC included, as they rushed to get repeats aired after the Wednesday comedy block. In Week 2, however, opposite the Golden Globes, the show dropped sharply (roughly 33%), directly into doubtful territory. If it can somehow recover some ground over the next two weeks, it might shock us with a renewal… but I wouldn’t bet on it.

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Agent Carter’s premiere outrated all but the first episode of this season’s Agents of SHIELD… so we’ll have to see how this settles. The usual 20% drop would already put it in tenuous territory; then again, I’m not sure anyone watching Agent Carter didn’t know what they were going to get, so drops should be softer than normal here.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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