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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – February 9, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.62|
|Back in the Game*||canceled||0.90|
|Last Man Standing (F)||0.93|
|Super Fun Night||😳||0.98|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.41|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳|
|Once Upon A Time|
Some like to compare the situation of Suburgatory this season with Happy Endings last season (the cancellation bear suspects most of them are disgruntled Happy Endings fans). It’s true that both will finish their third seasons with only 57 episodes (vs. 66 for three “full” seasons), and thus not be gifted a fourth automatically by the syndication gods.
The biggest, and critical, difference determining the fates of the two is that Suburgatory’s ratings have been above ABC’s (admittedly, artificially low) 2014 scripted average, and close to its 2013 late Fall average, while Happy Endings ratings were the lowest on the network in the Spring of 2013. The bear assumes that deals can be made for near average rated shows in their third season, even if they’re a half season short of an automatic renewal.
While the Index rankings are still useful, at this point in 2014 bear cautions against reading too much into the current Index values for ABC shows. With their top 3 dramas yet to air a new episode in 2014, the overall network rating average is artificially depressed.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐😐😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|🙂🙂🙂🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.