ABC’s renew/cancel standings for the first week of the 2016-17 season show a few bright spots, particularly with its new shows, but also some troublesome areas.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.26
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.52
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.0 1.3
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.0 1.3
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.2 1.5
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.5 1.8
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.6 1.9
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.0 1.3

 

Most of ABC’s new shows started pretty well, which gives the network some hope in the face of declines for its returning shows.

“Most.” Not “all.” Looking at you, “Notorious.”

The non-Shondaland entry in the network’s Thursday lineup this fall had a very rough start, losing more than half its lead-in audience and possibly inflicting some collateral damage on “How to Get Away with Murder.” It was saved from being the lowest series debut of premiere week only by a Friday show on FOX.

In short, it’s a bad start. And one that ABC is unlikely to tolerate for very long. It’s only a week in, but we may have a candidate for Dead Show Walking status.

The Bear is going to be cautious with most shows until the sample size gets larger, so several shows are rated as tossups for the moment. “Notorious” gets no such courtesy.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.3 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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