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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.48|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.62|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳||0.68|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Back in the Game||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|The Goldbergs||😐 😐 😐||1.03|
|Once Upon A Time||1.13|
|Super Fun Night||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.21|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.60|
Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC’s second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC’s weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the cancellation bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a “toss up” for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to “likely to be renewed”. Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to “catch up”.
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland’s prediction has also been moved down, to “certain to be canceled”. How long it stays on the schedule is anybody’s guess, except the bear’s, he doesn’t bother with that.
Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he’d have downgraded it already. Since he doesn’t, he’ll wait and see the future ratings.
As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.