Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.49|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳||0.58|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.66|
|Revenge||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.82|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Back in the Game||de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.93|
|The Goldbergs||😐 😐 😐||0.96|
|Super Fun Night||😳||1.13|
|Once Upon A Time||1.14|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.50|
While the cancellation bear’s prediction for The Neighbors has been “certain to be canceled” since mid-October, other headlines kept elbowing that out of the way. Now, with no changes to the ABC predictions this week to otherwise claim the limelight, The Neighbors prediction finally gets its time in the headline.
“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”
Super Fun Night’s position in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.
However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.