Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23||😳||0.52|
|Happy Endings||😐 😐 😐||0.60|
|666 Park Avenue||canceled||0.66|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.68|
|Malibu Country (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.73|
|Scandal||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|Nashville||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|The Neighbors||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|Once Upon A Time||1.40|
With nine weeks of the season behind us, I’ve seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the “likely renewed” category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.
Happy Endings’ woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to “likely canceled”. It’s in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a “toss up” since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I’ll call a technicality in that it won’t have the “typical” 66 episodes at the end of its third season.
Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They’ve in the “toss up” range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.
Sophomore sitcom Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23 didn’t start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It’s now certain to be canceled.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.