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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.48|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.62|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳||0.63|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Back in the Game||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|The Goldbergs||😐 😐 😐||0.99|
|Once Upon A Time||1.12|
|Super Fun Night||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.17|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.55|
While the cancellation bear made the prediction change earlier in the season, it’s worth noting that Trophy Wife is now certain to be canceled. It’s ABC’s lowest rated non-Friday sitcom by a fair margin. The bear would guess that Suburgatory will replace it at some point, but when, the bear can’t guess.
Those paying attention to the chart will note that Back In The Game has been moved back down to a “toss up”. It’s looking like it will be in a battle for survival with The Goldbergs (one that will possibly include Super Fun Night as well).
As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.
The bear’s getting increasingly nervous about Revenge being rescued by the syndication gods with its continuing ratings slide, but he’s sticking with the gods. At least for now.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.