Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 6, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😥 😥||0.47|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.60|
|Trophy Wife||😥 😥||0.81|
|Nashville||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|Back in the Game||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|Once Upon A Time||1.15|
|The Goldbergs||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.17|
|Super Fun Night||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.41|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.76|
With Lucky 7 becoming the first #bearchow of the season, and Betrayal certain to follow (but not clear when), after it’s ratings tumble in episode 2 the Cancellation Bear is now making Trophy Wife likely to be canceled. It started fine, at 95% of ABC’s first week average rating, but plunged to less than 60% in week 2. That’s likely to feed the bear.
FYI, The bear doesn’t like to predict a new show “certain to be renewed” until he sees 2-3 episodes worth of ratings.
The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they’re both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.