Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-9, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled||n/a|
|No Ordinary Family||😥😥||0.68|
|Brothers & Sisters||😐😐😐||0.79|
|Better With You||😐😐😐||0.90|
V returned to ABC’s schedule with relative ratings putting it squarely in the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range. With only one week of data, the situation is fluid, but that’s not a good start.
Resetting the ABC Renew/Cancel Index to use only shows airing on or after 1/3/11* does a bit of rearranging of the prospects for two shows.
- Brothers & Sisters ratings have been sliding all season, and it slipped from the bottom end of the “more likely to be renewed than cancelled” range to the bottom end of the “toss up” range on a relatively weak first outing of the New Year.
- Better With You, which had been flirting with slipping out of the “toss up” range, moves to the upper end of the “toss up” range on a relatively strong first week. In news that’s good for all current and mid-season ABC comedies, ABC’s Paul Lee wants a second night of comedy next season. Could that be the divine intervention that I wrote BWY could use?
The renewal of six of ABC’s scripted shows yesterday removes almost all the mystery from the rest of the current line up. Detroit 1-8-7 is certain to be cancelled, and No Ordinary Family will need a miracle for renewal.
*Why do that?
In previous seasons, comparing the season ratings averages for shows that began in the spring to those that began in the fall proved a bit apples to oranges because the overall lowered spring ratings (partially caused by Daylight Savings Time as well as a variety of reasons) tended to understate the position of shows that began in the fall. When tested on last season’s ratings, beginning a new Index after New Year’s seemed to correct that apples to oranges comparison problem.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.