Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2017-18 season, with an easy early call for a new drama.
|Ten Days in the Valley||🐻 🐻||0.5||-0.2|
|Inhumans (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.59|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.2||1.5|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.3||1.6|
As the Bear’s human colleagues have noted elsewhere, there is almost no way “The Good Doctor” won’t give ABC a season-to-season improvement at 10 on Mondays.
The show’s 2.2 rating among adults 18-49 was more than double the premiere rating for the bear-chow “Conviction” last season and was the highest-rated series debut on the network in a year.
Thus it’s a very easy call for the Bear to say “The Good Doctor” is a likely renewal. A couple more weeks of ratings even near its premiere level should bump it up to lock status.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.