Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2017-18 season, with an easy early call for a new drama.

Show Status 18-49 rating
Renew/Cancel Index
Ten Days in the Valley 🐻 🐻 0.5 -0.2
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.59
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.9
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.2 1.5
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.3 1.6
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.8 1.1
Modern Family Renewed 2.1 1.4

 

As the Bear’s human colleagues have noted elsewhere, there is almost no way “The Good Doctor” won’t give ABC a season-to-season improvement at 10 on Mondays.

The show’s 2.2 rating among adults 18-49 was more than double the premiere rating for the bear-chow “Conviction” last season and was the highest-rated series debut on the network in a year.

Thus it’s a very easy call for the Bear to say “The Good Doctor” is a likely renewal. A couple more weeks of ratings even near its premiere level should bump it up to lock status.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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