Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 10: This feels like ‘Once Upon a Time’s’ final season

Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2017-18 season, which don’t like the prospects for a veteran show.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Middle Final season 1.35 0.65
Scandal (O) Final season 1.16 0.46
Ten Days in the Valley DSW 0.43 -0.27
Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Once Upon a Time (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.56 0.10
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.14
Agents of SHIELD (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.70 0.30
The Mayor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.13
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.15 0.45
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.47
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.94 1.24
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.97 1.27
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.5 0.80
Modern Family Renewed 1.75 1.05

 

To say “Once Upon a Time’s” move to Friday nights has been underwhelming would be both accurate and a slight understatement.

The Bear isn’t hear to relitigate ABC’s decision to remake its Friday schedule, only to note that “Once Upon a Time” is pulling in considerably lower numbers this season, even adjusting for lower TV usage on Fridays. This time last year, “OUAT” had a Renew/Cancel Index of 0.35; now it’s 0.1.

The series is coming up on the end of its fall run. The Bear would not be at all surprised if ABC announced in the near future that “Once Upon a Time” was bowing out. Even absent such an announcement, however, the Bear thinks the show is on its way out.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.