Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 11: ‘Fresh Off the Boat’ might get help from a Disney-Fox merger

Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2017-18 season, which are still on the fence for a comedy series.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Middle Final season 1.33 0.63
Scandal (O) Final season 1.16 0.46
Ten Days in the Valley DSW 0.43 -0.27
Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
Once Upon a Time (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.09
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.14
Agents of SHIELD (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.60 0.16
The Mayor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.13
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.38
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.81 0.11
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.15 0.45
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.91 1.21
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.97 1.27
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.5 0.80
Modern Family Renewed 1.74 1.04

 

“Fresh Off the Boat” is pretty much a textbook tossup show right now. Its ratings currently rank seventh among ABC’s eight comedies, and although it’s built up a decent-sized library (80-plus by season’s end), ABC’s parent company, Disney, isn’t going to make back-end money on the show since it’s produced by 20th Century Fox TV.

Or rather, Disney at the moment isn’t going to make back-end money on “Fresh Off the Boat.” Should a much-discussed merger of Fox and Disney go through, the show would become an in-house production. In that case, the Bear would probably rethink his prediction.

For now, however, “Fresh Off the Boat” remains a tossup. We’ll see how things play out both in the Nielsen ratings and in the executive suites as the season progresses.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.