ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2016-17 season ponder what to do with one of the cornerstones of the network’s lineup.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.91 0.21
Conviction (O) DSW 0.74 0.04
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.53
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.90
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.16
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.88 1.18
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.75 1.05
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.51 0.81
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.31 1.61
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.66 0.96

 

There’s no polite way to put this, not that the Bear is having a sudden attack of politeness: “Once Upon a Time” is struggling this season.

It’s down more than 30 percent vs. this time last year (1.07 rating vs. 1.57 in 2015). It ended last season right at the network average for scripted shows; this season it’s about 0.25 below that.

And yet The Bear could still see ABC trying to squeeze one more year out of the show and the seemingly bottomless supply of Disney IP to which it has access. With “Quantico” shipping out to Mondays and “Secrets and Lies” done, the network is already rebuilding half its Sunday schedule. Moving “OUAT” away at the end of this season would mean pretty much a full teardown. That’s not a good prospect to face going into next fall.

There’s also a case to be made, if ratings take a turn for the worse in the spring, that ABC will announce an end date a month or two out and let the show go out with a bit of dignity intact.

The former scenario is probably the more likely, but a little more time will tell. The Bear is keeping “Once” a tossup for now, leaning a little toward renewal.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/12/07/is-your-favorite-fall-show-about-to-be-cancelled-maybe-possibly-it-could-happen/ Is your favorite fall show about to be cancelled? MAYBE. POSSIBLY. IT COULD HAPPEN. – foolish watcher

    […] numbers are slipping doesn’t mean it’s going to be canceled, don’t be daft; Once Upon a Time is way down, but ABC might let it write the end of its own fairy tale next […]

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