Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 12: ‘Black-ish’ is a lock for renewal

Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2017-18 season, which bump up a show to certain renewal.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Middle Final season 1.33 0.63
Scandal (O) Final season 1.16 0.46
Ten Days in the Valley (some Sat.) DSW 0.37 -0.33
Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) 🐻 🐻 0.72 0.02
Once Upon a Time (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.54 0.07
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.14
Agents of SHIELD (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.57 0.12
The Mayor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.12
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.37
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.81 0.11
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.15 0.45
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.91 1.21
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.97 1.27
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.51 0.81
Modern Family Renewed 1.74 1.04

 

Like the vast majority of veteran shows this season, “Black-ish” has seen its ratings decline. A not-small part of that is due to its move to Tuesday nights, where it doesn’t have “Modern Family” feeding it viewers. Lead-ins don’t matter nearly as much as they used to, but they’re not nothing.

Even with that decline — “Black-ish” is off by 28 percent vs. this time last season — the show is in approximately zero danger.

It has syndication deals in place already, and since the show is produced by ABC Studios, the profit it makes from those deals stays at home.

That’s enough for the Bear to lock the show in for 2018-19. “Black-ish” is now a sure bet for renewal.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.