ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2016-17 season move a veteran comedy into the likely renewal category.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) DSW 0.72 0.02
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.52
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.90
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.59 0.89
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.83 1.13
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.7 1.0
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.47 0.77
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.31 1.61
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91

 

“Last Man Standing” is certainly not the highest-rated show on network TV, or even on Friday nights. It is, however, one of the most consistent.

In eight of its 10 episodes this season, it has drawn a 1.1 in adults 18-49. In the other two it’s posted a 1.2. That’s usually good enough for first or second place on Fridays.

“Last Man Standing” is in Season 6, so it’s not a cheap show to make anymore. But Warner Bros., which makes it, should have some incentive to keep the syndication money flowing for another year, and ABC should know it’s not bloody likely to do any better if it tried starting over next season.

The Baxters should be back in fall 2017.

One other note: Dead Show Walking “Notorious” finished up last week, so the Bear is marking it as “canceled.” ABC will protest that it’s not officially done, but we know better.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/12/14/a-dancing-with-the-stars-contestant-will-soon-be-in-charge-of-the-u-s-s-nuclear-materials/ A ‘Dancing With the Stars’ contestant will soon be in charge of the U.S.’s nuclear materials. – foolish watcher

    […] I’m not saying that it’s going to be cancelled, but I am just saying that The Real O&#82… is ABC’s lowest rated family sitcom that doesn’t air on Fridays. I’m a little worried about it. […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus