ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 13 of the 2016-17 season push the network’s top-rated comedy into certain renewal status.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) DSW 0.72 0.02
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.52
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.92
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.56 0.86
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.58 0.88
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.82 1.12
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 1.0
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.28 1.58
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91

 

The Bear has kept “Modern Family” as a likely renewal for the fall, as it’s a contract year for the cast.

But the long-running comedy also remains ABC’s highest-rated show, along with a lucrative performer in syndication for the studio that makes it, 20th Century Fox. So it gets an upgrade to certain renewal now.

The series is at ratings lows this season — its 2.28 average so far this season is about 11 percent below last year’s average. Even so, it’s the No. 2 comedy on all of TV and ABC’s No. 1 show, period, running about a tenth of a point ahead of another veteran, “Grey’s Anatomy.”

And every episode 20th Century Fox makes means more money flowing back to the studio in syndication. Something tells the Bear that the cast and the studio will work out those contract details.

The Bear is taking the next two weeks off as there’s next to no original programming between now and the new year. He’ll return the week of Jan. 9.

 

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/12/20/that-time-tom-arnold-of-all-people-could-have-saved-us-all-from-donald-trump-but-didnt/ That time Tom Arnold, of all people, could have saved us all from Donald Trump but didn’t. – foolish watcher

    […] Modern Family is a lock for another season, which is not a surprise considering it is ABC’s biggest hit. […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus