ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2016-17 season lock in another show for renewal.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) DSW 0.67 -0.03
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.56
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.27
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.14
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.96
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.58 0.88
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.83 1.13
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.29 1.59
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.62 0.92

 

No need to drag this out any further into the new year: “The Goldbergs” is a lock to return next season.

ABC’s comedies have largely been carrying the network this season: Only three of the network’s nine dramas so far this season have Renew/Cancel Index numbers above 0.5. All but one of ABC’s comedies is above that mark.

“The Goldbergs” is the No. 2 comedy on ABC behind “Modern Family,” and it has capably filled the Wednesday leadoff spot previously held by “The Middle.”

The show will also pass the 90-episode mark before the season is over, making its syndication deal (already locked in) that much better for producer Sony. Add it up, and it’s a sure bet to return.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2017/01/11/look-away-from-the-trump-peetroversy-for-a-second-because-you-need-to-see-joseph-fiennes-as-michael-jackson-in-the-urban-myths-trailer/ Look away from the Trump peetroversy for a second, because you need to see Joseph Fiennes as Michael Jackson in the ‘Urban Myths’ trailer. – foolish watcher

    […] And ABC doesn’t have any new series to talk about, but Cancel Bear says that The Goldbergs will be renewed and I’m not one to disagree… […]

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