Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 2 of the 2017-18 season, which don’t like the chances for a first-year drama.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Middle||Final season||1.6||0.9|
|Scandal (O)||Final season||1.4||0.7|
|Ten Days in the Valley||🐻 🐻||0.45||-0.25|
|Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Once Upon a Time (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.3|
|Inhumans (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.44|
|The Mayor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.2||1.5|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.2||1.5|
If you asked ABC, it would probably tell you that “Ten Days in the Valley” is a limited series designed to come to an ending after its 10-episode run. There’s no reason to doubt that.
It’s also true that if “Ten Days in the Valley” were wildly successful, ABC and the show’s producers would figure out a way to make a second season happen. That second part, however, is pretty much a moot point.
“Ten Days in the Valley” is tied for the lowest-rated show of the young season (with “The Exorcist”), and it’s unlikely to get any chance beyond its initial 10-episode run.
ABC has set up its Sunday schedule so it will be easy to turn over to “American Idol” in the spring. “Ten Days” will very likely get to play out its 10-episode run, but don’t expect anything beyond that.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.