ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 21 of the 2016-17 season move a first-year show up to certain renewal status.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.89||0.57|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.77||0.07|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.19||1.00|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.28||0.58|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.56||0.86|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.68||0.98|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.23||1.53|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.84||1.14|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.29||1.59|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.90|
“Speechless” had a nice start to the season, as the Bear noted way back in October. It has been remarkably consistent since then as well. As such, it’s moving into sure-thing territory for next season.
The show premiered to a 2.0 rating in adults 18-49 in September. Its season average is only 16 percent below that, a ratio that’s better than all but a handful of new series so far this season. It’s only gone below 1.5 once all season, in early December opposite “Hairspray Live” on NBC, and then improved in each of its next three episodes before leveling off a little recently.
That’s a great recipe for continuing your run for a while. “Speechless” will definitely be back next season as part of ABC’s strong comedy brand.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.