ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2016-17 season don’t like a comedy’s chances for a return engagement.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.57
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 1.00
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Renewed 1.28 0.58
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.26 0.56
The Middle Renewed 1.59 0.89
Scandal (O) Renewed 1.73 1.03
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.56 0.86
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.67 0.97
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 2.21 1.51
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.84 1.14
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.27 1.57
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.59 0.89

 

 

ABC’s Tuesday and Wednesday comedy blocks are helping keep the network afloat this season, and it’s not a stretch to think nearly all of the shows currently airing in those lineups will be back next season.

The Bear said “nearly all.” Not so fast, “The Real O’Neals.”

The second-year comedy has simply fallen too far behind the other shows on Tuesday and Wednesday to survive into 2017-18. The show is averaging a 0.93 rating this season. The next lowest-rated Tuesday or Wednesday comedy, “Fresh Off the Boat,” is at 1.26 — a jump of 35 percent.

Next season may see some shuffling of the comedy blocks. But it seems unlikely that ABC would choose “The Real O’Neals” over a new series in hopes of shoring up the weak link. “The Real O’Neals” is thus downgraded to a likely cancellation.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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