ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2016-17 season ponder the limits of corporate synergy.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.89||0.57|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.19||1.00|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.55||0.85|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.67||0.97|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.2||1.5|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.83||1.13|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.25||1.55|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.59||0.89|
“Agents of SHIELD” is tiptoeing ever closer to replacement-level ratings, barely keeping its numbers above that line as it’s been at a series low of 0.6 among adults 18-49 in five of its past six outings.
Were it any other show, the Bear would be writing the obituary for “SHIELD” right now. But it’s not. “SHIELD” is the first (though arguably no longer the flagship) major TV property under the Disney-Marvel partnership, and it airs on another Disney-owned property. Those ties run deep.
Deep enough to keep it on the air? That will be the test. Earlier in the season, the Bear was betting on a shorter-run final season for “Agents of SHIELD” in 2017-18. Now, and particularly with an “Inhumans” series already greenlit, that seems less likely.
The Bear is leaving “SHIELD” as a tossup for now bit is thisclose to downgrading it to a likely cancellation. Another week or two teetering on the edge of replacement level will probably get it there.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.