ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2016-17 season focus on a poor showing for a new series.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
Time After Time 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.0
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.57
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 1.00
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
The Middle Renewed 1.58 0.88
Scandal (O) Renewed 1.73 1.03
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.67 0.97
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 2.2 1.5
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.83 1.13
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.23 1.53
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.59 0.89

 

It has not been a good season for new dramas. Yeah, “This Is Us” is a hit, and “Lethal Weapon” and “Bull” have emerged as solid players. But fewer than half of the 20 new dramas to air so far this season on the Big 4 networks — only nine of 20 — have managed to average even a 1.0 rating among adults 18-49.

The situation is especially dire at ABC, where three of its four new dramas are under the 1.0 bar: the already gone “Conviction” and “Notorious” and now “Time After Time,” which starts off as a likely candidate to join those two in cancellation by season’s end.

“Time After Time,” in fact, had the weakest drama series premiere of the season on the Big 4 with a 0.7 rating. It’s not likely to get much better from here, and so it’s a likely cancellation.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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