ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2016-17 are all about connections.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Time After Time||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.0|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|The Catch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.10|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.56|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.99|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.54||0.84|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.66||0.96|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.18||1.48|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.82||1.12|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.21||1.51|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.58||0.88|
Note: Because of Nielsen delays, averages for Sunday shows are through March 5. March 12 ratings will be factored in next week.
“The Catch” had very marginal ratings last season, but it also had arguably the four most important words an ABC drama can have in its opening credits every week: “Executive producer Shonda Rhimes.”
Had “The Catch” not been a Shondaland product, it likely wouldn’t have survived. Other than awards-bait “American Crime,” it was the lowest-rated show ABC picked up for this season.
And, no surprise, it returned last week to lower ratings than at any time last season. But because of its Shondaland association it’s remaining a tossup for now — very much subject to change after more data come in. Shondaland shows aren’t immune to the early hook, but they probably get a little bit more benefit of the doubt than others might. Such is the power of being a valuable producer to the network and its sister studio.
“The Catch” is shaky, but it knows the right people. For now.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.