ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 recount the predictable tale of a marginal show in its second season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|American Crime (O)||🐻 🐻||0.4||-0.30|
|Time After Time||Canceled||0.53||-0.17|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻||0.73||0.03|
|The Catch (O)||🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.54|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Imaginary Mary (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.96|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.22||0.52|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.51||0.81|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.63||0.93|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.12||1.42|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.79||1.09|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.17||1.47|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.56||0.86|
Among the most enduring lies networks tell themselves is that a marginally rated first-season show will somehow catch on in Season 2. More than a few shows in recent years have made it to year two based on that shaky reasoning.
And just about all of them went away after that second season. The Bear sees “The Catch” going that way too. The fourth wheel in ABC’s TGIT lineup from producer Shonda Rhimes is downgraded to likely cancellation.
The show is hovering barely above replacement level, losing nearly half its “Scandal” lead-in on average and suffering a 42 percent drop from “How to Get Away with Murder’s” same-day ratings earlier in the season. That’s not a formula ABC will be able to justify even in these bleak ratings times.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.