ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2016-17 season predict a return for a low-rated show.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
American Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 0.39 -0.31
Time After Time Canceled 0.53 -0.17
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.71 0.01
The Catch (O) 🐻 🐻 0.71 0.01
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.54
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
Imaginary Mary (O) 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.30
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.96
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
The Middle Renewed 1.54 0.84
Scandal (O) Renewed 1.48 0.78
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 2.11 1.41
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.79 1.09
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.17 1.47
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.56 0.86

 

Its ratings are barely above replacement level, and it’s essentially a vestigial part of the larger Marvel universe at this point. Still, the Bear foresees a return for “Agents of SHIELD” next season.

It seems exceedingly unlikely that it will run for a full season. With “The Inhumans” already picked up for 2017-18, it seems likely some sort of split schedule is in the works for ABC. That will help “SHIELD” ease its way out gracefully, or at least semi-gracefully.

Were ABC and Marvel not corporate cousins, “SHIELD” would likely have been done by this season, if not sooner. You can thank (or blame) the gods of synergy for its continued life, one that will probably last one more season.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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