ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2016-17 remove the final tossup from the lineup.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
American Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 0.39 -0.31
Time After Time Canceled 0.53 -0.17
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.69 -0.01
The Catch (O) 🐻 🐻 0.7 0.00
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.54
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
Imaginary Mary (O) 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.96
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
The Middle Renewed 1.54 0.84
Scandal (O) Renewed 1.48 0.78
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.61
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 2.09 1.39
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.77 1.07
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.17 1.47
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.83

 

As of last week, the Bear had only one ABC series remaining rated as a tossup for renewal or cancellation. That series is “Dr. Ken,” and it’s time to go one way or the other.

It’s not looking good for the good doctor. The Bear is downgrading the series to a likely cancellation. Though it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if ABC renews the series, it also feels as though whatever interest there was in “Dr. Ken” is on the wane.

Lead-in “Last Man Standing” is virtually unchanged year to year (1.16 this season vs. 1.2 in 2015-16), but “Dr. Ken” has taken a hit. It’s down more than 20 percent season to season (1.11 to 0.87).

The grass is rarely greener in TV, but still: ABC may think it can do better than “Dr. Ken” next season. The network has shot a couple of multi-camera pilots that would theoretically pair with “Last Man Standing.” Expect one of those to fill the spot vacated by “Dr. Ken.”

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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