ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2016-17 season show a decent start for the network’s Tuesday comedies, particularly the new show in the lineup.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻🐻🐻||0.88||0.56|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻🐻🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻🐻🐻||1.1||0.87|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻🐻🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻🐻🐻||1.18||0.48|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.6||0.9|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.9||1.2|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻🐻🐻🐻||2.37||1.67|
The pilot for “American Housewife” leaned heavily into the premise of its original title, “The Second Fattest Housewife in Westport.” Thanks to its premiere ratings, the show has bought itself some time to find the more generalized idea implied by the new title.
It’s not the Bear’s job to judge the quality of shows, but the way “American Housewife” hammered at the “Second Fattest” part of its old title really was striking. But people watched it — its premiere built on its lead-in, “The Middle,” and kept pace with “NCIS.”
That’s a decent start by just about any standard these days. If it can keep running even with “The Middle,” “American Housewife” will get plenty of time to figure out what it wants to be.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.