ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 6 of the 2016-17 season doesn’t think a recent slide for a new show is much to worry about.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.93 0.23
Conviction (O) 🐻 0.8 0.1
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.12
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.53
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.12
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.87
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.18
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.37 0.67
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 0.9
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.73 1.03
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.88 1.18
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.82 1.12
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.25 1.55
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.36 1.66
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.72 1.02

 

Most shows held up pretty well against the World Series last week — but “Designated Survivor” did not. That decline, however, shouldn’t affect its long-term prospects.

The ABC show had settled into a fairly comfortable sone of 18-49 ratings in the mid- to high 1s following its premiere. Then opposite Game 2 of the World Series it took a hit of four tenths of a point to 1.2, the largest decline of any show against a World Series game last week.

That shouldn’t matter, however. “Designated Survivor” remains ABC’s No. 2 drama by a good margin, and it’s still running well ahead of where “Nashville” was last season. Odds are that the show will regain at least some of its same-day audience following a week off for the CMA Awards this week. Either way, it’s still a likely renewal for next season.

That’s not the case for “Notorious,” by the way, which became the season’s first Dead Show Walking last week when ABC cut its order.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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