ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 9 of the 2016-17 season wonder whether a veteran show may be nearing the end of its run.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.91 0.21
Conviction (O) DSW 0.77 0.07
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.53
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.89
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.38
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.56 0.86
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.66 0.96
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.2
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.79 1.09
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.54 0.84
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.33 1.63
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.66 0.96

 

The announcement that Marvel and ABC are making a show based on “The Inhumans” (after shelving a planned feature film) was notable for a couple reasons. The one that caught the Bear’s eye was the fact that the show appears at this point to be completely disconnected from Marvel and ABC’s current show, “Agents of SHIELD.”

“SHIELD” spent a considerable amount of time in the past laying groundwork for that Inhumans film, performing its duties as a cog in the Marvel machine to its core fans and few others. With that gone and the more integral part it played in setting up “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” even farther in the past, it’s harder to see any meaningful connection to the Marvelverse, which is not good news.

The show has always felt at least as much like it was servicing some larger Marvel plan as it was its own thing. Now that it’s less of the former, it’s getting a bit late to try to be the latter.

“SHIELD” is staying at tossup level for now. The Bear’s gut says it may hang on for another, possibly shortened, season in 2017-18. Meager as the show’s ratings have been, they’re still an upgrade over ABC’s dirt-poor performance at 10 on Tuesdays last season.

The Bear will check back in with “Agents of SHIELD” before the season is out. It’s pretty much the definition of stuck in the middle right now.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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