Cancel Bear vs. CBS, week 10: ‘Bull’ is way down but still a likely renewal

Here are CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2017-18 season. They are bullish on a second-year drama.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Me, Myself & I DSW 1.0 0.3
Wisdom of the Crowd DSW 0.98 0.28
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.67 -0.03
Superior Donuts (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.94 0.24
Scorpion (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.13
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
Man with a Plan (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.29
Criminal Minds (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
SWAT 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.02 0.32
SEAL Team (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.14 0.44
9JKL (O) 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.38
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.49
Life in Pieces 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.48
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.73
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.63
NCIS (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
Kevin Can Wait (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.32 0.62
Young Sheldon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.48 1.78
The Big Bang Theory Renewed 2.93 2.23

 

“Bull” has fallen off an unsightly 30 percent in ratings this season. Where at this time last season the show was averaging just under a 1.7 in adults 18-49, this fall it’s a shade below 1.2.

The Bear is here to tell you that won’t matter: “Bull” is still probably getting renewed for a third season in 2018-19.

Double-digit drops for second-year shows are the norm this season, not the exception. “Bull” is CBS’ second highest-rated drama in raw numbers, and its Renew/Cancel Index ranks fourth among the network’s hour-long shows.

When most everything is down, the playing field is still level. “Bull” will be just fine.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.